IMPT: How Many People in U.S. Have COVID and A Simulation of Viral Particles in a Cough

I previously mentioned how valuable I find the podcast “Coronavirus Morning Report”

I’m posting a link to today’s (Friday the 17th) episode and I highly recommend listening to it, especially starting at about three minutes into it.

Coronavirus Morning Report – Friday, April 17th

https://art19.com/shows/coronavirus-daily-briefing/episodes/398e6adc-efd9-47a6-929e-6ac93238af38

It’s at that point that the host starts an excellent analysis of this important article published yesterday in the Atlantic:

I’m not going to summarize the article as the host at the podcast referenced above does a much better job of that then I could.

Here’s a key quote from it:

This tight correlation [the number of new cases per day, and the growth in the number of new tests per day] suggests that if the United States were testing more people, we would probably still be seeing an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. And combined with the high test-positivity rate, it suggests that the reservoir of unknown, uncounted cases of COVID-19 across the country is still very large.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/

In short, this means that even though numbers of new cases may be “plateauing” or going down slightly in some (but far from all) places, we need to be wary and cautious about “opening things up” b/c the virus is almost certainly much more wide spread than the current numbers are showing.

This data underscores how critical it is to get more testing implemented and how contact tracing needs to be put into place before even the slowest movement of “reopening.”

On this urgent need, here’s the opening from an article posted early this morning by NBC News:

After you read the Atlantic article and listen to the analysis of it at the Coronavirus Morning Report, check out (and share) this interactivity of what virus particles can do and how far they can travel in the air.

I accessed the above simulation via a web browser on my laptop. I’m not sure how well it would work via a phone.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/14/science/coronavirus-transmission-cough-6-feet-ar-ul.html

But, only on iPhones, the NYT has, via their general iOS app (can be accessed at the bottom of the link above) which gives you a VR perspective of how far away 6 feet is from you as you walk through a public space.

If only the app would shout out for you “WHY AREN’T YOU WEARING A CLOTH FACE COVER” when you encounter folks not caring for others in this simple way.

Oh yeah, here’s how to make a cloth face covering quickly and cheaply.

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